Venezuela is a country that has increasingly been on the news—from the death of their former President Hugo Chavez in 2013, to the growing economic and humanitarian crisis ravaging the country, to 2016 and the ever escalating clash between the United States and Venezuela.

The Venezuelan crisis is continuing to grow and the situation is creating concern and response in the international community, including the United States and the Trump administration’s recently proposed travel ban on the country. In order to understand the potential ramifications of Venezuela’s crisis, it’s important to look at the political environment and the current situation facing the Venezuelan people.

Chavistas vs. the Opposition: Venezuela’s Political Atmosphere

This internal battle between the Chavistas and the Opposition can be rooted back to 2015, when the Opposition won two thirds of the seats in the National Assembly, the country’s parliament. Ever since then, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been chipping away at the authority of the National Assembly, using the Supreme Court, full of his supporters, to do so.

The first move that Maduro has made was on March 29, 2016. The Supreme Court announced that it was taking over the powers of the National Assembly, claiming that it was in a “situation of contempt” after electoral irregularities by three Opposition members during the 2015 election, and that the National Assembly had disregarded the previous Supreme Court rulings. The Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro called it a “final blow to democracy to the country.” The Supreme Court later reversed its decision, but the protests had already began.

The second main move was on July 30, 2016, when an election was held to vote for members of a Constituent Assembly. The main purpose of the assembly is to create a new constitution— one, the Opposition points out, that is much like the constitution that Maduro’s mentor, Chavez, had created during his time in power. Maduro argues that this new constitution will “neutralize” the Opposition, and promote overall peace throughout the country. The Constituent Assembly has the duties of: “perfecting” Venezuela’s economic model, safeguarding and expanding the social programs introduced by Chavez, and expanding the justice system.

Critics have stated that Maduro had not consulted the Venezuelans before creating the Constituent Assembly. They say that it is to cement his power, and allow him to by-pass the Opposition controlled National Assembly. In fact, the Constituent Assembly has stated that its powers outweigh those of any body or individual, including the President. In other words, there are two bodies passing legislation.

The Constituent Assembly has extended their own time to two years, and has yet to rewrite any articles or draft any new ones. It is, though, passing decrees quite quickly. They have done things such as voted to put Opposition leaders on trial for treason, created a “truth commission” to investigate “acts of violence” carried out at recent protests, and also gave itself  power to legislate issues on the “preservation of peace, security, sovereignty, the socio-economic and financial system.”

Maduro has called the Opposition “lackeys” of the United States. He has been more than vocal in his displeasure, talking about the Opposition on state-run TV about how he wants to strip Opposition legislators from their constitutional immunity from prosecution and jail them, even calling one of them “little Hitler.” Chavistas members have called the Opposition “elitist,” claiming that they want to exploit the poor Venezuelans to increase their own riches. They praise Maduro and former President Hugo Chavez for using Venezuela’s oil riches to help the poor and reduce inequality.

The Opposition thinks otherwise. They say that Maduro and Chavez have eroded democratic institutions and have mismanaged the economy. They estimate that more than 100 civilians have been killed in protests, 15,000 wounded, 3,000 arrested, and 431 political prisoners detained without any judicial process. They call for the removal of Maduro mainly, as well as removal of the Supreme Court officials of the March 29 ruling. The Opposition also want the release of all “political prisoners.” They also call for a creation of a “humanitarian channel” to allow medications to be imported to counter the shortages.

What Are the Conditions Like for the Venezuelans?

The conditions for the Venezuelan people have been inhumane. They have had a shortage of basics— such as milk, flour, medicine and toilet paper—leading to tens of thousands fleeing from their homes. Nowadays, shelves are more stocked but the ever increasing inflation keeps the prices too high to purchase for most people. Venezuela has the highest inflation rate in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund, already in the triple digits and growing.

They face high crime rates. The U.S. State Bureau of Diplomatic Security has found that the capital city of Caracas was the most violent city in the world in 2016, and Venezuela has the second highest murder rate in the world. The violence has gotten to the point where citizens have to stay inside at night, doors locked in fear. The breakdown of law and order has resulted in a situation where hospitals and schools are routinely burglarized.

School food programs are being cut, not just due to lack of funds but because they cannot seem to keep them stocked. Once food comes in, it is stolen, leaving children with no food anyways. In poor communities, parents have chosen to take their children out of school because of the lack of food programs. It’s more practical to have children wait in line at a grocery store or to get government handouts than to starve at school.

The burglarization of medical institutions and hospitals, as well as the shortage of critical medicines and equipment, has made it impossible for the medical field to make any progress on their work. The lack of health care has created a resurgence of diseases that were once nearly eradicated or completely eradicated in the past in Venezuela, such as malaria. There has also been a large outbreak of Zika, one of the biggest and worst outbreaks in Latin America. The lack of adequate water infrastructure has led to Venezuelans filling up several buckets of water when they do get water, making this the prime breeding grounds for diseases such as Zika, Chikungunya, dengue and malaria.

There has been a largely dubbed “Maduro” diet that many Venezuelans have ended up on—the inflation has led to many to skip meals all together to save money, leading to a high percentage of malnourished Venezuelans throughout the country. Three quarters of the population have lost weight in the last year. There has also been a high increase in mortality, mostly child morality.

There is a growing fear that the lack of an adequate health system, which has led to both an increase in contagious diseases and Venezuelans fleeing their homes, will create an exodus of Venezuelans into neighboring countries—becoming not just a national issue anymore, but international.

These conditions can be rooted back to Chavez. In 1998, he was elected on the promise of using the oil riches to help the poor, rather than wealthy. His administration relied on oil money, assuming that it would go up. It is something that is called the “Dutch Disease” in economics, where countries that have high exports of a particular good, such as oil, have other sectors underdeveloped. Because of this, Venezuela has imported most of their other goods. The currency devaluation has only added to this issue, since they have less buying power when it comes to purchasing imports. From 2016 to 2017, the amount of imports purchased by Venezuela has gone down 50%.

In 2012, crashing oil prices and price control have even further deteriorated the national economy. Oil was up to $100 a barrel when Chavez was in control; in 2017, the price has gone down to $50.80 a barrel. With a lack of oil money, the devaluation of their currency and high inflation rates, the Venezuelan government has had no means in which to help their poor base. Social programs and food subsidies have been cut.

The price controls have been on things such as food, medicines, diapers, and even toilet paper. The goal was to check inflation and keep prices affordable, but it became too cheap. With prices even lower than production rates, it became unaffordable to keep shelves stocked.

U.S. and Venezuelan Relations: Trump Administration’s Travel Ban

After hitting wall after wall of legal trouble, the Trump administration has announced on September 24 a third attempt at his travel ban, which goes into effect on October 18.

It restricts or suspends travel to the United States from eight countries: Chad, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Syria, Yemen and Venezuela. The specific travel restrictions vary for each country, but the motive behind the ban remains the same from the administration: “to protect the security and interests of the United States and its people” and to protect Americans “in an era of dangerous terrorism and transnational crime.”

These are not exactly the words that come to mind when it comes to Venezuela, neither does it fit with the previous travel ban attempts that were infamously dubbed “Muslim bans.”

When it comes to the addition to the list, the White House has stated that the Venezuelan government “fails to share public safety and terrorism-related information adequately” and has not been “fully cooperative” in receiving deportees.

The U.S. travel ban targets, specifically for Venezuela, officials and their families involved in “screening and vetting procedures” such as those from immigration, foreign ministries, investigative and intelligence police forces—seemingly seeking to isolate the ruling class rather than regular citizens. It does not, however, affect civilians.

The Venezuelan government has not taken the ban lightly. Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza has called it an attempt to force regime change in the Latin American country, calling the move “a form of psychological and political terrorism.” He also called the U.S. the world’s “major human rights violator,” and that Trump acted “as if he were the world’s emperor.” Arreaza has also stated that Venezuela will deal with the U.S. with mutual respect, but that they are prepared to defend themselves.

Sanctions have been imposed on Venezuelan top officials in the past months, which Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has stated he is “proud” of. The White House has explained that the sanctions are an attempt to deny the Maduro administration from a critical source of financing their “illegitimate rule,” and to also protect the U.S. financial system from complicity.

Less than pleasant words have also been exchanged by both heads of states— President Maduro calling President Trump “an emperor”; President Trump stating that a “possible military option” is possible in dealing with Venezuela. It seems to be more of a slap on the wrist on a government that has been increasingly seen as a dictatorship throughout the world.

The Potential Effects of the Venezuelan Crisis

There was once great hope for Venezuela, a country that at one point boasted the greatest amount of crude oil reserves that surpassed even Saudi Arabia. Now with the falling oil prices, mismanagement of government, and a once popular social movement quickly deteriorating, there is little to no hope for the South American country.

Maduro’s approval rating is currently at 21.9%, and he yet continues to fight for power. He claims that staying in power is the only way to keep Chavez’s legacy alive, but to what point will this continue?

The international community has offered aid to the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, but the government has refused it. Thousands upon thousands are escaping across the border because of the lack of aid and resources, ending up in Columbia, Brazil and Peru. Asylum applications have increased for these countries, including the United States, from Venezuelan refugees. In 2016, there were 27,000 asylum applications turned in; as of July 2017, over 50,000 Venezuelans have applied.

There are also many temporary forms of residence in the area, thanks to solidarity between Latin American countries. But there are a number of obstacles that are stopping many for applying—bureaucratic obstacles and high application fees have deterred many, which has resulted in Venezuelan refugees ending up in a new country illegally. The United Nations Refugee agency is helping with the increasing refugee crisis—with registration, profiling, reinforcing reception capacities, and providing basic humanitarian assistance. It has been hard on the public health systems, with the sudden influx of Venezuelans entering countries after not having access to basic medications and treatments in their home country.

It is unclear if the United States or if any other international power will become involved in Venezuela. Trump has tweeted that he is considering military options, and history itself has shown that it is possible that the U.S. might get involved. They have a history of meddling in South America: from the Monroe Doctrine to the Iran-Contra Scandal, to Chile and Pinochet, to the Bay of Pigs, the meddling image of the U.S. is quite ingrained in the minds of South America. In fact, Maduro has further enriched this in the mind of his supporters, accusing on state-run television that it is the United States that is driving down the price of oil. It is not entirely impossible that Trump’s comments will be used as further proof that they are being threatened.

A civil war might be possible between the Chavistas and the Opposition, as well as a military coup – Venezuela has seen a number of coups throughout the years— and there is a chance that this political battle might just continue the way it is for some time. Time will only tell. But there will soon become a point where it will become unlivable; people can only survive without food, water and medicine for a limited amount of time.

Sources

1. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877
2. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39449494
3. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/venezuela-is-falling-apart/481755/
4. http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/21/americas/venezuela-crisis-explained/index.html
5. http://abcnews.go.com/International/crisis-venezuela/story?id=48966962
6. http://abcnews.go.com/International/us-announces-sanctions-venezuelan-president-maduro/story?id=48955837
7. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-maduro-assembly-election-hunger-democracy-1.4235976
8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/venezuela-spurns-travel-ban-calls-u-s-major-rights-violator
9. http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/travel-ban-venezuela/index.html
10. https://www.elitedaily.com/news/donald-trumps-new-travel-ban-added-venezuela-heres-whats-going/2080000
11. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/24/enhancing-vetting-capabilities-and-processes-detecting-attempted-entry
12. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41094889http://www.dw.com/en/what-is-going-on-in-venezuela/a-40065543
13. https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/04/18/venezuela-humanitarian-crisis-spilling-brazil
14. http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/briefing/2017/7/596888474/asylum-applications-venezuelans-soar-unhcr-steps-response.html